Overrated in 2026: A Look at Preseason Projections

SEC Teams Under the Microscope

Fall practice for the 2026 college football season is underway, with Week Zero games set to begin on August 24. As teams prepare, preseason rankings have sparked discussion about which programs might be overvalued.

The Alabama Crimson Tide, under coach Kalen DeBoer, faces a notable challenge. A projected sixth-place finish in the SEC might be difficult for DeBoer to manage, according to CFB-HQ On SI. This projection comes after the Tide made the CFP last year, following a miss in 2024. However, a 35-point loss in the CFP was described as good news for DeBoer. The team's rushing attack averaged only 2.9 yards per carry in SEC play last season, and this offensive line progression and run game performance are key concerns for DeBoer.

Texas, despite a 10-3 record last season, is another team that underachieved, according to CFB-HQ On SI. This record, while seemingly strong, did not meet expectations.

Oklahoma's defense is considered among the best in college football for the upcoming season. However, for the Sooners to advance deep into the playoffs, quarterback John Mateer needs to improve, and the rushing attack must demonstrate vitality after averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in SEC games last year, according to CFB-HQ On SI.

Vanderbilt, picked 13th in a 16-team SEC, does not appear to be an unusual selection, according to CFB-HQ On SI, citing Athlon Sports. Over the last two seasons, Vanderbilt went 17-9. However, the Commodores need to significantly improve their defense, which gave up 5.9 yards per play in SEC games last year, according to AOL.com, citing Athlon Sports.

Preseason Outlooks and Key Areas for Improvement

LSU, with Lane Kiffin in his first season as coach in 2026, has the necessary components to contend for a College Football Playoff trip, according to AOL.com, citing Athlon Sports. The Texas A&M Aggies are expected to have one of the SEC's top defenses. However, if coach Mike Elko’s team aims to advance beyond the initial round of the College Football Playoff, the offense must address several key preseason concerns. This suggests that while their defense is strong, offensive production will be crucial for deep postseason success.

Kentucky and Arkansas are hoping for a spark from new coaches after experiencing losing seasons in 2025, according to AOL.com, citing Athlon Sports. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are looking to make another bowl appearance, driven by breakout quarterbacks. The quarterback battle at Florida between Keelon Russell and Austin Mack is also set to resume. Florida also has a schedule that is favorable for new coach Jon Sumrall’s debut, which could provide an opportunity for a strong start to his tenure.

The Alabama Crimson Tide's projected sixth-place SEC finish would translate to an 8-4 or possibly a 9-3 season and a spot in a prime, though non-CFP, bowl game, according to CFB-HQ On SI. This outcome would still represent a solid season but might not meet the high expectations typically associated with the program. The focus for coach DeBoer will be on improving the offensive line and the running game to avoid another season where they averaged only 2.9 yards per carry in SEC play.

Oklahoma's path to a deep playoff run hinges on quarterback John Mateer's progression and an improved rushing attack, which averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in SEC games last year, according to CFB-HQ On SI. While their defense is strong, offensive consistency will be vital for the Sooners to compete for a championship.

Vanderbilt's defensive struggles, giving up 5.9 yards per play in SEC games last year, according to AOL.com, citing Athlon Sports, present a significant hurdle. Despite a 17-9 record over the last two seasons, according to CFB-HQ On SI, a 13th-place projection in the 16-team SEC suggests that their defensive performance needs substantial improvement to climb the conference standings.

Sources

• CFB-HQ On SI
• AOL.com